Bitcoin Before the Halving 2024: Detailed Analysis of Price Opportunities

Key Takeaways

• The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, and reduced the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block
• Between April 19, 2024, and March 25, 2025, the Bitcoin price rose by 36% – less than in previous halving cycles
• Bitcoin achieved a return of over 113% in 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, gold, government bonds, and real estate
• After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose to nearly $70,000; after the 2016 halving, to almost $20,000
• One year before the 2024 halving, Bitcoin was trading at $28,820.82 in April 2023
• The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for spring 2028 and will reduce the block reward to 1.5625 BTC

What Happened at the April 2024 Halving

On April 20, 2024, the fourth Bitcoin halving took place. A halving is an event programmed into the Bitcoin protocol that occurs approximately every four years and cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half. The block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This halving means that since April 20, 2024, only about 450 BTC are being added to the Bitcoin ecosystem daily – previously, it was around 900 BTC per day.

The halving is part of Bitcoin's deflationary design. Through regular reductions in newly created Bitcoin, the supply is artificially constrained, which historically has led to price increases. The next, fifth halving is scheduled for spring 2028 and will halve the block reward again – to 1.5625 BTC per block.

Historical Patterns: Price Movements Before Previous Halvings

Analysis of past halving cycles reveals a recurring pattern. One year before each halving, Bitcoin consistently traded significantly higher than in the corresponding period before the previous halving:

• November 2011 (one year before Halving 1): $2.55
• June 2015 (one year before Halving 2): $269.26
• May 2019 (one year before Halving 3): $7,208.12
• April 2023 (one year before Halving 4): $28,820.82

These figures illustrate Bitcoin's long-term uptrend across halving cycles. Investors typically position themselves before the halving, which historically has led to rising prices in advance.

Performance After Previous Halvings in Comparison

Price developments after previous halvings provide clues about possible patterns, although past performance is no guarantee of future developments:

• After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose above $1,000
• After the 2016 halving, the price reached nearly $20,000
• After the 2020 halving, a rise to nearly $70,000 followed

These historical price movements show that Bitcoin typically recorded significant gains in the 12 to 18 months following a halving. The time lag between halving and price peak varied between cycles.

Actual Price Development Since the 2024 Halving

The actual performance following the April 20, 2024 halving has been more moderate than in previous cycles so far. Between April 19, 2024, and March 25, 2025, the Bitcoin price rose by 36%. Immediately after the halving event itself, price movements remained modest, as market observers had expected.

This 36% increase is significantly below the gains seen after previous halvings. Several factors likely played a role: Bitcoin has now reached a market capitalization that makes percentage price increases difficult. Additionally, the 2024 halving was the first to occur in an environment where exchange-traded Bitcoin ETFs already existed, which likely changed market dynamics.

Bitcoin as an Asset Class in 2024

Despite the more moderate post-halving performance compared to previous halvings, Bitcoin demonstrated impressive overall performance in 2024. With a return of over 113%, Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional asset classes such as the S&P 500, gold, government bonds, and real estate.

This performance underscores Bitcoin's role as a standalone asset class with low correlations to traditional markets. For investors in the DACH region seeking to diversify their portfolios, Bitcoin remains a relevant component – but with corresponding volatility and associated risk.

Assessment of the Current Situation

From today's perspective, at the end of March 2026, the fourth halving is almost two years in the past. The development so far shows that historical patterns do not repeat mechanically. While previous halvings each led to marked price increases, the performance following the 2024 halving has been more subdued so far.

Several structural changes distinguish the current cycle from previous ones:

• Institutional investors are more heavily involved through regulated products such as ETFs
• Bitcoin's market capitalization is at a historically high level
• Media attention for halvings has already led to price movements in advance
• Regulatory frameworks have become more concrete in many jurisdictions

The next halving in spring 2028 will show whether the increasing maturity of the market further dampens historical patterns or whether new dynamics emerge. For investors, the recommendation remains to regard Bitcoin as a long-term position with appropriate risk management – not as short-term speculation on halving effects.